The minutes of the RBA's most recent meeting show that interest rates aren't moving any time soon. Source: AAP
BORROWERS can rest assured that interest rates aren't going anywhere any time soon, with the federal budget expected to restrain economic growth.
The Reserve Bank has, yet again, indicated it has no plans to change the cash rate, which remains at a record low 2.5 per cent.
In the minutes of its May meeting, released on Tuesday, the board judged it was prudent to leave rates on hold while they continued to have the "expected effects" on economic activity.
"A sustained increase in dwelling investment was in prospect, consumption had strengthened a little and business conditions were around average levels," the RBA said.
"The board considered that the current accommodative stance of policy was likely to be appropriate for some time yet."
The outlook for the global economy hadn't changed, the RBA said, while the Australian economy appeared to have picked up a little over the past two quarters, as expected.
But the board said overall growth in coming quarters was likely to be below trend as growth in exports was expected to slow and mining investment continued to decline.
Growth would also be impacted by "fiscal consolidation", policy changes such as spending cuts and new taxes in the federal budget, which had yet to be released when the RBA met two weeks ago.
JP Morgan chief economist Stephen Walters said the minutes confirm that the RBA believes the economy's transition away from mining investment is a "work in progress".
"Officials seem hopeful that the economy is evolving pretty much as forecast, but don't seem to have a high degree of conviction around this assessment," he said.
"There was acknowledgment that auction clearance rates are fading and that demand for home loans, previously booming, had stabilised."
Mr Walters said the outlook for interest rates would hinge on how consumers and businesses react to last week's budget, and that another rate cut was possible.
"So far, indications are the reaction is pretty ugly; we expect a double digit fall in the (Westpac) consumer confidence reading tomorrow," he said.
CommSec chief economist Craig James said monetary policy was balancing fiscal policy.
"In a macro sense the budget isn't a major drag on the economy but the perception of hurt from budget changes is impacting confidence to a greater extent than the reality of the actual decisions," he said.
"The next interest rate decision on June 4 will be super-important... because the Reserve Bank will be able to give its judgment on the fiscal contraction associated with the federal budget and the implications that this poses for interest rate settings."
CommSec still expects a rate hike in late 2014 or early 2015, he said.
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